Murder Rate Slows, But Effective Crime Control Strategies Still Needed: Study

A report on homicide rates by the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) has further complicated the “surging crime” narrative.

Authored by University of Missouri–St. Louis criminology professor Richard Rosenfeld and CCJ research specialist Ernesto Lopez Jr., the report found that murder rates in major American cities rose throughout the first half of 2021, but the pace of the increase slowed from the year’s first to second quarter.

The authors warned that that the falloff should not distract Americans from the need to develop meaningful measures to curb violent crime.,

“Our conclusions have not changed,” they wrote. “As the pandemic subsides, long-lasting reductions in violence and crime will require pursuing evidence-based crime-control strategies and enacting long-needed reforms to policing.”

The report examined crime rates for 10 offenses in 29 U.S. cities, from Los Angeles to Norfolk, Va. The number of murders was 16 percent greater during the first half of 2021 than during the same period in 2020, representing 259 more lost lives.

But homicide rates for cities remained well under crime rates during the early 1990s, when violent crime peaked. Since that time, homicide has decreased nearly by half: the report recorded 15 deaths per 100,000 residents in the studied cities, compared to 28 deaths per 100,000 residents in 1993.

The current CCJ report updates a series of earlier ones with new data through the end of June 2021.

According to the authors, the findings still demand “urgent action” to curb the violence spike, which a new CCJ panel will attempt to develop. Composed of community violence intervention leaders, law enforcement officers, public health officials and academics, the Violent Crime Working Group will investigate the causes of rising violence and develop recommendations for policy makers.

“Our conclusions have not changed: As the pandemic subsides, long-lasting reductions in violence and crime will require pursuing evidence-based crime-control strategies and enacting long-needed reforms to policing,” the authors write.

In addition to examining homicide rates, the report also assesses weekly changes in 10 crimes between January 2018 and June 2021, obtaining data from online city police department portals. Findings differed across crime types: gun assaults and aggravated assaults were up during the first half of 2021 compared to the same time frame last year. Rates of motor vehicle theft were 21 pdrcent higher in the first six months of 2021 than during that time frame in 2020.

Burglary, larceny and drug offense rates, however, were lower in the first half of 2021 than during the first half of 2020. Other major crimes that declined between the two time frames include robbery, as well as both residential and nonresidential burglary.

The authors also found that domestic violence was 2 percent higher in the first half of 2021 — 2,589 more incidents — than the year before. But the authors urged readers to view these results, which are based only on 12 cities where domestic violence data was available — with “caution.”

“A previously released Council on Criminal Justice systematic review documented an 8.1 percent increase in domestic violence incidents after jurisdictions imposed pandemic-related lockdown orders in the spring of 2020,” the authors write.

The results of the study — the sixth in a series of reports exploring crime changes during the COVID-19 pandemic — point to several causes. Declines in burglaries, robberies, larcenies and drug offenses overlapped with stay-at-home orders and business shutdowns, suggesting lockdowns might have led to lower shoplifting rates and a reduction in drug enforcement, as police had other priorities.

Correspondingly, motor vehicle thefts may have risen as more people left cars unattended. Researchers consider such offenses “gateway” or “keystone” crimes that may lead to homicides or assaults.

Recent increases in homicides have generated the most concern — and the most confusion over their cause. Although a rise in murders coincided with nationwide protests following the murder of George Floyd, a connection between the violence and the protests remains uncertain, the authors write.

To curb this rising crime type, the authors recommend bolstering hot-spot strategies that emphasize prevention efforts in areas with concentrated violence. Other priorities include strengthening street outreach workers, who engage directly with those at the highest risk for violence, and developing reforms that crack down on police misconduct.

It’s important, the authors argue, to “redirect” certain police functions — such as responding to drug overdoses — to other agencies.

“Even if large-scale reallocation of these activities to other agencies is not feasible, abandoning long-needed police reform is not a viable policy option,” the authors write. “Rather, change is essential to improve the level of trust between the police and the communities they serve and to achieve durable reductions in urban violence.”

To read the full report, click here. 

Eva Herscowitz is a TCR Justice Reporting intern.