Courthouse Lottery: ‘Wide’ Sentencing Differences Found Among Federal Judges

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In many federal courthouses across the U.S., “equal justice under the law” is an elusive goal.

A study by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) at Syracuse University confirms what most attorneys already know: the personal predilections of the judge sitting on the bench matter as much to the final outcome of a case as the facts at law.

The study found wide differences in prison terms handed out by judges sitting in the same courthouse, ranging from 16 months in some jurisdictions to as high as 64 months in others.

“While judges need sufficient discretion to consider the totality of circumstances in assigning a sentence in a specific case to ensure it is ‘just,’ a fair court system always seeks to provide equal justice under the law, working to ensure that sentencing patterns of judges are not widely different for similar kinds of cases,” TRAC said.

But its analysis of median sentences in 159 federal court courthouses in a four-year period ending in December 2020 found only seven where sentences handed down by judges in the same jurisdiction were roughly similar.

That doesn’t necessarily point to “unwarranted” disparity in sentencing, TRAC cautioned, noting that “special” circumstances could account for some of the differences.

Nevertheless, the fact that judges in the same courthouse take dramatically different decisions on prison terms points to a reality of U.S. jurisprudence in courtrooms ranging from the smallest county court to the highest court in the land, TRAC said.

“The changed makeup of the U.S. Supreme Court and the influence of recent appointments on the outcome of cases the Court hears has been the focus of a great deal of recent public attention,” wrote TRAC.

“It should not be surprising that the identity of a judge can impact decision outcomes from the Supreme Court all the way down to trial court sentencing decisions.”

The study focused on “median” sentences in order to get a typical range without regard to the specific offenses before the judges, and it concentrated on decisions taken by judges in the same courthouse to correct for any regional differences in sentencing style or case circumstances.

It found, for example, a difference of more than 60 months in the median prison terms handed out by judges in five federal courthouses: Tampa, Fl.; Benton, Ill.; Orlando, Fl.; Greenbelt, Md.; and Philadelphia.

Philadelphia illustrated the highest variation in median sentences, with 64 months; Miami was the lowest, with 16 months.

The study examined the actions of 204 federal judges in the sentencing of 45, 823 defendants. The number of judges in a given jurisdiction had little effect on the variations. (Cases are assigned to judges in a given jurisdiction at random.)

The Manhattan District Court, where 33 judges are seated, showed a median difference of 25 months.  San Francisco, with 10 judges, was virtually the same.

A similar study by TRAC a decade ago produced similar results. But, TRAC noted, while “some specific courthouses show greater agreement today, others show less agreement.”

“Many of these changes appear to reflect changes in the judges currently serving there.”

The full TRAC study and tables can be downloaded here.